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The decision cycle known as the Boyd cycle, or the OODA Loop, has become an important concept in both business and military strategy. According to John Boyd, decision-making occurs in a cycle of observe-orient-decide-act. An entity (either an individual or an organization) who can process this cycle quickly, observing and reacting to unfolding events more rapidly than an opponent, can thereby "get inside" the opponent's decision cycle and gain a military or business advantage.
John Boyd developed the concept to explain how to direct one's energies to defeat an enemy and survive. Boyd emphasized that "the loop "is actually a set of interacting loops that are to be kept in continuous operation during combat." He also indicated that the phase of the battle has an important bearing on the ideal allocation of one's energies.
"In order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries--or, better yet, get inside [the] adversary's Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action time cycle or loop. ... Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries--since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm or patterns they are competing against."
In our hi-tech era, computers and technology take the human place in decision processing. Computers, even simple ones, are much quicker than human beings in calculating equations and binary procedures. Electronic processing time is improved constantly and the functionality lowers that of the human being that is programming it. The OODA Loop then is the time it takes the machine to recognize the problem and to apply the desired solution for this problem. When the machine detects a threat based on the information that was programmed, it signals the problem to the operator. The signal can be either an indication on the screen, a voice indicator, or even an action in which the process stops or a person/object is diverted elsewhere. This is the OODA Loop process for the machine and it ends with the signal or indicator. The process pace is up to the machine's performance and it is quicker than most human beings. The machine's operator must check whether there was an actual threat or ‘positive', or whether it was one of the machine's grey areas or ‘false positive'.
However, technology, especially the technology used for security screening, is predictable and commonly known. The specifications of any great invention are out there for anyone to read and learn. The capabilities of a given algorithm can be evaluated by anyone, good or bad. The advantages of the machine are advertised and praised, but the disadvantages are also shown to anyone who knows how to deduct disadvantages from advantages. In short, any manufacturer must indicate the machine's advantages and capabilities as well as its limitations and sensitivities. Even when these pros and cons are not noted, anyone can buy the machine and test its capabilities at home. Unlike weapons, there are no regulations for selling security technology.
OODA Loop, in relation to the human element, is the gap analysis between the threat and the technology, its advantages and its limitation. The term ‘false positive' represents a loophole the machine is known to create and thereby ignores as a threat. For example, CTX machines are deployed in airports to check luggage for explosives based on material density. The algorithm used in this technology can determine whether there is a material in the luggage that has the same density as in standard explosives. There are some limitations such as quantity and solidity, but the machine can do the job of an operator and check a suitcase for threats without even opening it. The OODA Loop of the machine is from the moment the luggage is deposited onto the CTX machine until it is scanned entirely and checked for density in a very specific manner. If there were a threat inside the luggage, the machine would mark it and signal the operator where the threat was located inside the luggage.
The disadvantage of CTX machines is a range of materials that are very close to those used in explosives in terms of density. Sun-dried fruit is one material, and toothpaste is another. An experienced CTX operator would know after a few days or a month into observing which materials create the ‘false positive' hit. For this operator, it would be easy to refute threats just by knowing that certain materials "trick" the machine. The process can be quicker and more efficient.
When a real OODA Loop process is deployed, the point of view starts from the end-what the machine was created to do and what its limitations are. It doesn't really matter what the machine can do. It is more important to know what it cannot do; how an aggressor can use the machine's limitations or perhaps even the operator's inadequate handling procedures, and what the operator should do in order to gap the machine's loopholes.
In the case of the CTX machine and its limitations, an aggressor can easily find out what types of materials are controversial. The information is out there for anyone to learn. Disguising means, hence explosives, in a package of materials that are known to trigger the machine as a ‘false positive' would make the machine and operational procedures deployed therein inadequate.
A decision making matrix should be designed from the end-how would the aggressor try to bypass the machine or procedures? From thereafter, the deployment of detection methods should be based on refutation of threats and not verification of technology loopholes. For the CTX machine case, a prompt refutation of the threat should have been deployed with a second process or technology to check for suspicious objects. The fact that certain kinds of materials fall into the machine's loophole category should not underestimate suspicion. On the contrary, a patient and observing aggressor would use this loophole to overcome security.
Finally, the human element behind the machine is the only decision making matrix enforcer. The OODA Loop can assist professionals with applying effective procedures to lessen the machine's loopholes and inadequacies.
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